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Any illusion that Vladimir Putin is a master strategist suffered another blow earlier in the week, as the leaders of Sweden and Finland announced that they are moving towards joining NATO, after more than 70 years of neutrality. It seems that Putin has succeeded in creating the thing that he said he feared the most – the expansion of NATO. Remember, that was the logic he tried to initially explain the invasion of Ukraine before the rants about “de-nazification”. Putin and his apologists said over and over that NATO and by extension America, had created this crisis. So let’s put aside the fact that Ukraine didn’t get the votes required to join NATO, because this was always the excuse – an opportunistic anxiety not rooted in reality, but has turned into a bloody version of blaming the victim.
NATO is the defensive alliance initially founded by The US and its allies after World War 2 to act as a collective work against Soviet expansion. And history shows really clearly why Russia’s western neighbours are the ones who have good reason to fear Russian aggression and not remotely the other way around. I’ll spare you the story of Russia’s partition of Poland in the 1790s or most of its attempt to take Warsaw in 1920s. Let’s just start with the Second World War.
In 1939, during the non-aggression pact with Hitler, the Soviet tried to invade Finland and failed despite having larger forces. In 1940s, the USSR invaded the Baltic states deporting thousands of citizens to Siberia. Now, in 1945, Stalin committed to a free and fair election in eastern Europe but prompt about doing the opposite by establishing the iron curtain. In quick succession, Stalin took control of Albania, Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, and claimed East-Germany as his own. In Hungary, the secret police installed a pro-Moscow leader and when the Hungarian people revolted in 1956, the Soviets sent in Tanks and crushed the rebellion. In 1968, when the leader of Czechoslovakia began liberalising, the Soviet Tanks again ruthlessly rolled in.
Soviet expansion was the pattern until the fall of The USSR – what Putin famously called the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the 20th century. You know who didn’t think it was a catastrophe? Those countries who had been co-opted by the Soviet’s for so long. And you know what they did? They asked to join NATO as a guarantee for their security. While there were debates worldwide, you can’t really question why Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia joined NATO in 1999. Or why eleven other nations joined over the next 2 decades. Even still, just 6% of Russia’s land border touch NATO countries. Not exactly evidence of encirclement. But Russia’s old expansionist impulse returned with vengeance under Putin and curiously, always in non-NATO nations, like his 2008 invasion of Georgia which Putin claimed was orchestrated by The US. Or the 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, followed by years of funding fighters in the Donbas region.
In between all of these, there was poisoning on British soil, backing Assad in Syria, and the murdering and jailing of opponents at home. But the invasion of Ukraine was finally a bridge too far, and the western world has rallied around their resistance as a defence of sovereignty and democracy.
Self-styled strong men fear looking weak, and Putin’s epic miscalculation will not stop him from doubling down. More evidence of war crimes will emerge in the coming weeks no doubt. but as we confront the human cost of this invasion, we are also confronting the legacy of Russian expansion at the hands of someone who has gotten away with his lies for too long. So look at the facts of history and don’t believe the hype.
NATO expansion isn’t to blame for Putin’s aggression, but ironically, Putin will be responsible for NATO’s expansion.
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